A Charged Future

“I've been drivin' all night, my hand's wet on the wheel..”

Radar Love – Golden Earring

Cars have fuelled our freedom for a century and a half. In the past, they have represented independence, been strident symbols of self-reliance and, sometimes been objects of fierce family pride.

It was Henry Ford’s mass-produced “T-Model” built in Geelong that gave Australian families their first experience of carefree road trips. Then it was Holden’s FX sedan, then Chrysler’s Valiant and Ford’s Falcon. Then there were panel vans, station wagons and everyone’s favorite – the ute.

“Daddy told me I shouldn’t chase boys. I should pass them.” - Anonymous

If you remember any of those heady days, it will bring a smile to your face.

However, all of that is about to change. The dull, rumbling roar of our cars may all but disappear.

Because there’s a boom in electric vehicles.

As part of the Paris Accord a ‘Declaration on Electro-Mobility’ was developed and signed by organisations such as the International Energy Agency, United Nations Environment Programme, the Global Fuel Economy Initiative and major manufacturers like Michelin, Nissan and Renault.

The declaration commits the signatories to work towards ‘sustainable’ transport electrification by 2030.

Worldwide transport contributes almost one-quarter of current global greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, the belief is that to prevent dangerous climate change at least 20 percent of all road transport will need to be electrically driven by 2030. To achieve this modeling conducted by the International Energy Agency says electrical driven vehicles, including fuel cells and hybrid-driven vehicles, should be 35 percent of global sales by at least 2030, just over a decade away.

Britain and France have already announced that they will ban the sales of new petrol and diesel driven cars by 2040. The EU has announced that all vehicles sold after 2035 must be electric. China has announced a similar policy, but has not yet set a date.

As a consequence, all of the world’s major manufacturers including Jaguar, Landrover, GM, Ford, and Volkswagen have developed hybrid electric vehicles. Volvo recently announced plans to make 1 million EV’s by 2025. In 2018 EV sales in the US skyrocketed 82% (361,307) compared to the year before.

But it is in China where the future of the world’s car market will be decided. It is the largest in the world. In 2016 there were an estimated 300 million cars in the country. By itself, Beijing has five million. (Australia, in comparison, has a mere 18.8 million ordinary vehicles, and many of those vehicles are more than a decade old).

Most of the world’s major vehicle manufacturers have factories in China in partnership with one of 60 local companies. Mercedes, Nissan, BMW, Fiat, Mitsubishi, Ford, General Motors and many other well-known automotive brands all manufacture cars in China.

Each year the country makes 21 million new vehicles or one in four globally. It exports them all over the world. Iran is one of its biggest customers.

If the Chinese Government announces a new policy favoring electrically driven vehicles the implications will not only be profound, they will be global.

And the Chinese have indicated they are likely to switch entirely to electric vehicles over the next decade but not for reasons we might think and certainly not because of the Paris Accord.

The Chinese will switch because air pollution is a very, very serious problem.

In 2012 it was estimated by the World Health Organisation that more than 760,000 Chinese people died prematurely as a direct result of air pollution.

In the north of the country, life expectancy has been cut by more than 5 years, because of air pollution.

During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the authorities were forced to close several power stations and shut down manufacturing around the city to keep emissions down to a manageable level. Despite this researchers later found that for 75% of the time athletes were exposed to levels of pollution higher than considered safe by the World Health Organization.

But the Chinese are determined to cap their carbon emissions. They believe if they reduce their reliance on foreign oil then a significant source of pollution will be removed.

Already China has 40% of the world’s electric vehicle market and sold 46,855 units in seven months of 2017. There are over 350,000 charging points across the country and Tesla, one of the world’s most advanced builder of electric vehicles is constructing a factory in Shanghai. And China’s nearest neighbor, India is aiming to sell only electric cars by 2030.

So, where does that leave Australia?

To date sales of purely electric vehicles in this country have been pretty poor. According to the industry sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) peaked at a miserable 294 units in 2015 but fell to 138 in 2018. Plug-in hybrids sold about 940 in 2015 but dropped to around 550 in 2016.

Charging stations outside of the metropolitan area are rare. Plus, the current average range of electric vehicles (140-300kms) is not sufficient for typical country use. Additionally, EV vehicles are comparatively expensive. The 2017 BMW i3 94Ah, one of the most popular electric cars on sale in Australia costs in excess of $AUD63,000. The Tesla Model 3 is competitively priced at $AUD35,000 but only has a range of 350 kms. The Nissan Leaf costs around $AUD39,000 but once you’ve traveled 140kms you’ll need 8 hours to recharge it.

 

However, it’s likely that any developing trend in the Chinese market will result in a tsunami of change in automotive manufacturing around the world. In Australia, our car manufacturers are about to abandon the country which leaves us at the mercy of global developments. And while you’ll still be able to purchase Toyota’s Landcruiser for a long time yet to come increasingly the silent, sneaky and ever-improving electric vehicle will be the norm.

 

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Perhaps it will drive itself.